How to stick with exercise after your New Year’s resolution

Resolutions aren’t silly

New Year’s resolutions have a reputation for lasting until the second week of January. Research is kinder. Norcross et al. (2002) followed 159 people with a New Year’s resolution by phone for six months, along with 123 people who had similar goals but planned to start changing sometime later.

After six months, 46% of the resolvers considered themselves continuously successful, compared with just 4% of the others. The most common goals? Losing weight, starting to exercise, quitting smoking.

A more recent Swedish study, Oscarsson et al. (2020), included 1,066 adults who signed up in the last week of December 2016. Their most common resolutions were about physical health (33%). After a year, 55% of those who completed the final questionnaire considered themselves successful.

Both studies have a catch: participants rated their own success. The Swedish authors also assume that more motivated people were more likely to sign up for their study. Still, deciding to change on New Year’s isn’t naive. The question is how to follow through.

Where resolutions fall apart

An older study, Norcross and Vangarelli (1988), followed 200 resolvers for two years. After one week, 77% were keeping their resolution; after two years, 19%. According to the overview in the Swedish study, the figure after the first month was 55%. So the biggest drop-off happens within the first month.

Participants named lack of willpower as the biggest obstacle, along with failing to control their environment — temptation within reach, for example. So willpower does play a role. That’s exactly why it’s smart not to build your plan on willpower alone.

A more interesting detail: even among the successful, 53% had at least one slip. A slip doesn’t rule out success. What to do about slips is covered in Missed a day? Why one slip won’t break your habit.

The “fresh start effect” describes why motivation arrives with the new year and then fades. Dai, Milkman and Riis (2014) analyzed entry records of 11,912 college students at a university gym in the US. The probability of a visit was 33.4% higher in relative terms at the start of a new week, 14.4% at the start of a month, 11.6% at the start of a year and 47.1% at the start of a semester. As the week, month and year went on, visits declined. This is an analysis of archival data — it shows an association, not cause and effect.

The good news from the same study: a fresh start doesn’t come just once a year. A similar bump showed up at the start of a week or a month. If January doesn’t work out, there’s no need to wait for the next New Year’s Eve.

1. Write your goal as “I will,” not “I’ll stop”

In the Swedish study, people who wanted to start doing something were more successful than those who wanted to give something up or avoid something: 58.9% vs. 47.1%. The authors call the difference small, and it’s an association, not proof of cause. But rephrasing a goal costs nothing.

• Instead of “I’ll stop spending my evenings binge-watching shows” → “I’ll walk for 20 minutes every day.”
• Instead of “I won’t take the bus everywhere” → “I’ll get off one stop early and walk.”

2. Set the bar for a bad day

January plans tend to be built for your best day: the gym five times a week, a run every morning. Then comes a cold, a trip or a deadline. A goal that only works on good days falls apart on the first bad one.

A better choice is a daily minimum you can manage even on a bad day — say, a 20-minute walk. Anything beyond that is a bonus, not an obligation.

The Oscarsson et al. study offers an interesting hint here, too. The group with the most detailed guidance (specific, measurable goals and interim goals along the way) did no better than the control group; the group with lighter support did best. As one possible explanation, the authors suggest that a precise goal and more deadlines also give you more chances to see yourself fail. It’s a hypothesis, not a proven fact — but it rings true.

So at the start, it makes sense to measure consistency, not performance. The number that matters isn’t a personal best or a weekly average, but the number of days you hit your minimum.

3. Make an “if…, then…” plan

Psychologists call this an implementation intention: you decide in advance on a situation and what you’ll do in it. In a meta-analysis of 94 independent tests, Gollwitzer and Sheeran (2006) found a medium-to-large positive effect on goal attainment (d = 0.65). This wasn’t only about exercise, but about reaching goals in general.

A few examples for movement:

1. “If I close my laptop at work, then I put on my shoes right away and go out for 20 minutes.”
2. “If it’s raining, then I do a 20-minute workout at home.”
3. “If I’m short on steps at 6 p.m., then I walk to the store.”

The “if” part should be a specific moment you don’t have to remember — it comes on its own.

4. Plan for February in December

Write down three situations that are almost certain to come up in the first few months: illness, travel, a crunch at work. Next to each, note a minimum version of movement. And decide in advance what you’ll do after a missed day: carry on as usual the next day, no catching up and no punishment.

Also expect a new habit to take a while. In the small study by Lally et al. (2009), it took a median of 66 days for the automaticity of a new behavior to nearly reach its ceiling, with individuals ranging from 18 to 254 days (results from 39 people whose curve fit well). Starting on January 1, that brings you to around early March. Details are in How long does it take to form a habit? Not 21 days.

5. Get a buddy

The most successful group in the Swedish study named a specific person at the start of the year who would support them throughout it. On top of that, they got monthly check-in questionnaires and an email with tips on handling obstacles. It was a whole package, and the group with the most detailed guidance — which did no better — also named a support person. So this study can’t tell us what the buddy alone contributed. But it costs so little that it’s worth a try.

In practice: agree with your buddy on the same small daily bar, not on a competition. It’s enough that each of you knows whether the other is done for the day.

That’s exactly how Tada! works. It counts active days — a day is done with 6,000 steps or 20 minutes of workout — and in a shared streak, your buddy only sees your nickname, your color and whether you’re done for today. No comparing steps. Why a streak of days is so motivating, and where it falls short, is explained in Why streaks work (and when they stop working). What exactly counts as an active day is in the help center.

Make it last past January A small daily bar, a streak that shows your consistency and a buddy who keeps you going. No sign-up, no ads. Download for iPhone

Frequently asked questions

How many people actually keep their New Year’s resolutions?

It depends on the study and on how success is measured. Norcross et al. (2002) report 46% continuously successful after six months, Norcross and Vangarelli (1988) 19% after two years, and Oscarsson et al. (2020) 55% after a year (of those who responded at the end). Both Norcross et al. (2002) and Oscarsson et al. (2020) are based on how participants rated their own success.

Is it worth waiting until January 1 to start?

The new year is motivating, but in Dai et al. (2014) the “fresh start effect” also showed up at the start of a week and a month. If your start doesn’t go well, the next chance is a few days away, not a year.

What if I skip a day?

Nothing major happens. In Lally et al. (2009), a single missed opportunity didn’t meaningfully slow down habit formation. And even among people who kept their resolution, slips were common (Norcross and Vangarelli, 1988). How to get back on track without catching up is covered in Missed a day?.

Sources

1. Norcross, J. C., Mrykalo, M. S., Blagys, M. D. (2002). Auld lang syne: Success predictors, change processes, and self-reported outcomes of New Year’s resolvers and nonresolvers. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 58(4), 397–405. doi:10.1002/jclp.1151
2. Oscarsson, M., Carlbring, P., Andersson, G., Rozental, A. (2020). A large-scale experiment on New Year’s resolutions: Approach-oriented goals are more successful than avoidance-oriented goals. PLOS ONE, 15(12), e0234097. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0234097
3. Norcross, J. C., Vangarelli, D. J. (1988). The resolution solution: Longitudinal examination of New Year’s change attempts. Journal of Substance Abuse, 1(2), 127–134. doi:10.1016/S0899-3289(88)80016-6
4. Dai, H., Milkman, K. L., Riis, J. (2014). The fresh start effect: Temporal landmarks motivate aspirational behavior. Management Science, 60(10), 2563–2582. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2014.1901
5. Gollwitzer, P. M., Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119. doi:10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1
6. Lally, P., van Jaarsveld, C. H. M., Potts, H. W. W., Wardle, J. (2010, online 2009). How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world. European Journal of Social Psychology, 40(6), 998–1009. doi:10.1002/ejsp.674